The one area in which the Arab nations are reliably not rational actors is in regard to sectarian violence. The level of bigotry and hostility between Sunni and Shia is extreme.
Throughout the Middle East, mixed Sunni/Shia countries are dominated by murderous and corrupt Sunni autocracies. Until US intervention toppled the Sunni regime in Iraq, the non-Arabs in Iran represented the only place where Shia were dominant. Arab Shia are persecuted nearly everywhere.
The supposed liberation of the Iraqi Shia was instantly followed by the Iraqi Sunnis, with extensive support from across the region, launching a campaign of mass slaughter directed at the Shia of Iraq. This began immediately after the US invasion (the Sunni insurgency), and continues to this day (Daesh).
The Sunni nations are terrified of Iranian-backed Shiite insurgency within their own countries. The Iranians are wary of Sunni aggression against Iran, and understandably offended by the oppression of Shia across the Middle East. Both sides see the other's sectarian differences as indefensible heresies.
What's left of the EU will hold together for now, but NATO without the US is simply not NATO. The North Atlantic bit was fundamental.
The US-Russia alliance is a done deal because Trump is Putin's wholly-owned puppet. US national interests have nothing to do with it.
France is very unlikely to use its nuclear arsenal in any situation short of the impending conquest of France itself. It's a defensive weapon.
I'm well aware that Europe is more than just France and Germany; I thought it was obvious that I was glossing over the minor countries for the sake of brevity. The Belgian/Dutch/etc military is unlikely to be a significant factor in whatever occurs.
Which doesn't matter until the government is forced to call an election. We'll probably see a few intra-party leadership fights before that happens.
I find this frequently-expressed belief that the US military is somehow too competent and honourable to ever allow itself to be used in unjust aggression to be horrifyingly destructive and utterly divorced from reality.
There is nothing in US history to suggest that the US military shows any resistance at all to destructive military adventurism.
In its entire history, the USA has not had a single decade of uninterrupted peace. Start at the 7:50 mark in this for the list:
The behaviour of the US military during those actions does not suggest that they are any more ethical than other militaries.
The fact that a military is well trained and disciplined does not suggest that it is more likely to resist being used for evil. Quite the opposite.
I would appreciate less of the claimed mind-reading and condescension shown here.
The fascist bastards running Trump view the world as a Manichaean struggle between white Christians and everyone else. This applies to both Putin and Bannon; the Russians got in on the modern Islamaphobia train long before the Americans did.
They aren't trying to avoid war. They're trying to win.